By: Brad J. Lamb
In my essay released last week, I discussed several issues related to the COVID-19 virus, the modelling, and the response. I was very concerned about the true infection models. The issue is with the ‘denominator.’
Mortality rate =Numerator (deaths) / denominator (infected)
Current mortality rate U.S.: = 58,568 (deaths) / 1,029,179 (infected)
Current mortality rate Canada: = 2,852 (deaths) / 49,815 (infected)
Both mortality rates are very scary; the problem is we know for sure that they are not accurate. This is vital information because it tells us how dangerous and deadly COVID-19 really is. For instance, the seasonal flu has a mortality rate of 0.1-0.2%. We have been told that COVID-19 is far more deadly.
A recent study completed in early April (published April 21, 2020) by the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health along with the University of Southern California concluded that up to 80X more people in the L.A. area could be positive for COVID-19 versus the current published numbers. I recognize that this is just one study (a similar study with similar results was conducted in the San Francisco area).
I have been asking for these studies for over 60 days (as per my social media handles). Why have we not seen similar types of studies in Ontario or Canada? Why have we had to wait to April 21, 2020? If the study is correct, then it is possible the mortality rate could be 80X lower than what we see on the daily news. This could mean the mortality rate is 0.07% in both countries, less than the mortality rate of the seasonal flu . This would seem to be vital information that we need to have. Maybe our current stance towards an economic shutdown would be different knowing this.
If 99.93% of people survive COVID-19 without much in the way of problems, what then? Back in early April, this study reported that up to 5.2% of Los Angeles County was infected. With the exponential growth of the virus could it now be significantly higher? I think we need to know.
To read the studies, I have included four links to articles from four different news sources for your review.
Brad J. Lamb